If the oddsmakers are correct, we may not see many nail-biters in Sweet Sixteen action at this week's NCAA basketball tournament.
Last year, the top 12 seeds and 14 of the expected 16 advanced to the third round. Over this past weekend, only seven of the top dozen and eight of the anticipated 16 stayed alive in March Madness.
Kansas, the number 1 overall seed in the event, was eliminated along with one number two seed, Villanova, three number 3's----Georgetown, New Mexico and Pittsburgh----and three clubs seeded fourth-----Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Maryland.
Still in contention are three top-seeds----Kentucky, Duke and Syracuse, along with a trio of number 2's......Kansas State, West Virginia, and Ohio State....one third seed, Baylor, and one fourth seed, Purdue.
That means half of the survivors were seeded anywhere from 5 to 12 when the three-week tourney began. Seven of those eight will be underdogs Thursday and Friday.
THURSDAY
West Regional at Salt Lake City
|
Favorites |
Underdogs |
Point Spread |
| 4:07 PDT |
#1 SYRACUSE |
#5 BUTLER |
7 |
| 6:37 PDT |
#2 KANSAS STATE |
#6 XAVIER |
4 1/2 |
|
- |
|
|
East Regional at Syracuse
|
Favorites |
Underdogs |
Point Spread |
| 4:27 PDT |
#2 WEST VIRGINIA |
#11 WASHINGTON |
5 1/2 |
| 6:57 PDT |
#1 KENTUCKY |
#12 CORNELL |
9 |
|
- |
|
|
FRIDAY
Midwest Regional at St. Louis
|
Favorites |
Underdogs |
Point Spread |
| 4:07 PDT |
#2 OHIO STATE |
#6 TENNESSEE |
5 |
| 6:37 PDT |
#5 MICHIGAN STATE |
#9 NORTHERN IOWA |
4 |
|
- |
|
|
South Regional at Houston
|
Favorites |
Underdogs |
Point Spread |
| 4:27 PDT |
#3 BAYLOR |
#10 ST. MARY'S |
3 1/2 |
| 6:57 PDT |
#1 DUKE |
#4 PURDUE |
8 1/2 |
|
- |
|
|

The big surprise last week came when EIGHT double-digit seeds won first round games in the tournament.
FIRST ROUND UPSETS:
Thursday
| Underdog |
Favorites |
Point Spread |
Score |
| #14 OHIO |
#3 GEORGETOWN |
14 |
97-83 |
| #13 MURRAY STATE |
#4 VANDERBILT |
2 1/2 |
66-65 |
| #11 OLD DOMINION |
#6 NOTRE DAME |
2 1/2 |
51-50 |
| #11 WASHINGTON |
#6 MARQUETTE |
1 1/2 |
80-78 |
| #10 ST. MARY'S |
#7 RICHMOND |
1 1/2 |
80-71 |
| #9 WAKE FOREST |
#8 TEXAS |
5 |
81-80 (OT) |
|
- |
|
|
Number 9 Northern Iowa trimmed number 8 UNLV, but Northern Iowa was a one-point choice.
Friday
| Underdog |
Favorites |
Point Spread |
Score |
| #12 CORNELL |
#5 TEMPLE |
3 1/2 |
78-65 |
| #10 MISSOURI |
#7 CLEMSON |
1 1/2 |
86-78 |
| #10 GEORGIA TECH |
#7 OKLAHOMA STATE |
1 1/2 |
64-59 |
| #8 GONZAGA |
#9 FLORIDA STATE |
1 1/2 |
67-60 |
| #8 CALIFORNIA |
#9 LOUISVILLE |
1 |
77-62 |
| #6 XAVIER |
#11 MINNESOTA |
1 |
65-54 |
|
- |
|
|
In the 2009 NCAA Tournament, first round favorites won 23 of 32 games. This year, they went 20-12.
Last season, only one underdog of 16 in the second round was triumphant, and that was a one-point underdog. In 2010, six underdogs won their second games in the tournament.
SECOND ROUND UPSETS:
Saturday
| Underdog |
Favorites |
Point Spread |
Score |
| #9 NORTHERN IOWA |
#1 KANSAS |
11 1/2 |
69-67 |
| #10 ST. MARY'S |
#2 VILLANOVA |
4 1/2 |
75-68 |
|
- |
|
|
Sunday
| Underdog |
Favorites |
Point Spread |
Score |
| #12 CORNELL |
#4 WISCONSIN |
4 |
87-69 |
| #6 XAVIER |
#3 PITTSBURGH |
1 |
71-68 |
| #5 MICHIGAN STATE |
#4 MARYLAND |
1 1/2 |
85-83 |
| #4 PURDUE |
#5 TEXAS A&M |
2 |
63-61 (OT) |
|
- |
|
|
The Sporting News says that 44% of the fans who entered its NCAA Tournament bracket contest predicted Kansas would win the national championship.
Sports Illustrated had forecast a Kansas-West Virginia battle for the title.
ESPN reported it had 4.8 million brackets submitted looking for prizes. How many of those had all 32 first round victors picked correctly? FOUR.
No Edge In Picking Upsets
By Andrea Thompson
Live Science Senior Writer
When filling out their NCAA brackets, many people try to predict which games will result in upsets----a powerhouse team getting stomped by an underdog----to get ahead in their pool. But this strategy is no better than picking the better-seeded team, a new study shows.
"Picking the lower seed is a good strategy, but people think, "I can't win by doing that because everyone else is doing this," said Ed Hirt, a psychologist at Indiana University. Hirt and his colleague Sean McCrea, of the University of Wyoming, set out to see if people chose upsets based on a phenomenon called probability matching and whether or not the approach was more successful than sticking to the seeding.
Probability matching describes a scenario in which individuals predict a specific outcome based on an existing rate of occurrence. So for example, in the first round of the NCAA tournament, sports experts often expect there to be an upset in a No. 5 and No. 12 seed matchup, and bracket bettors will try to pick which of the four matchups between a 5 seed and a 12 seed will result in an upset. "People feel like they've just got to pick upsets," Hirt said.
For their study, Hirt and McCrea examined NCAA tournament results from 1985 to 2005 and the first-round predictions of more than 3 million entries in an ESPN Tournament Challenge. They found that picking upsets didn't result in any better results than sticking to the rankings.
"It seems that people who follow basketball are aware of the possibility of upsets and fool themselves into believing that they can figure out which upsets will happen," Hirt commented. "The problem is that the tournament seedings summarize most of the useful information one could use (win-loss record, strength of schedule, etc.), and so the upsets are much less predictable than one might think."
-------------------------------
Of the four games this year between the number 5 and 12 seeds in the NCAA tournament, only one 12th seed won, and that was Cornell, defeating Temple. In the last ten years, the 5's have a 23-17 edge over the 12's.
TRIVIA QUESTIONS:
Who scored the most points in an NCAA Tournament game?
Who had the highest scoring average in one NCAA Tournament?
[caption id="attachment_6966" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Tim Tebow"]

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Matt Hayes of The Sporting News says Tim Tebow is the "greatest player" in college football history. That's a strong statement, and I'm not sure I agree with that. The former Florida quarterback finished first, third and fifth in the last three Heisman Trophy races. Who would you choose as the best collegiate football player ever? Let me hear from you. Tebow has changed his throwing motion in recent weeks after getting instructions from former NFL quarterbacks and coaches who worked with him. It's said Tim has also improved his footwork. A new more compact delivery has scouts praising his short and long passes, and his performance on Pro Day in Gainesville was better than expected. Tebow is expected to be a second or third round draft choice next month.
[caption id="attachment_6965" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Alex Rodriguez & Derek Jeter"]

[/caption]
New York Post baseball writer Kevin Kernan reports that the bond of winning a championship together with the Yankees last fall has created a tighter bond between Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. They drove from Tampa to Bradenton together the other day for an exhibition game against the Pirates. And they left together. Before the game they played catch and long toss together, ran together in the outfield and even walked into the clubhouse together after they were done with their early work.
"They've definitely grown closer," one Yankee official told Kernan. They are laughing and joking together more, and during a workout in Tampa on another day, they spent a lot of time talking in the outfield on a back field. Kevin writes that they are enjoying being teammates which he says is a good thing for the Yankees. Neither player wants to make a big deal of their friendship, but it's obvious Rodriguez and Jeter are two superstars who have aligned. Kernan says the most interesting part about all this is that A-Rod is having a lot more fun on the field. Instead of it being about him, it is about team and being "one of the guys." By drawing himself closer to Jeter, who never is touched by controversy, Rodriguez is ahead in the game. One Yankee told the reporter, "It's important for teammates to realize that Derek and Alex are in this together."
Shoulder injuries are expected to sideline Arizona pitching ace Brandon Webb until late April, Colorado closer Huston Street, and San Francisco second baseman Freddy Sanchez maybe longer. And, Cleveland closer Kerry Wood could be out six to eight weeks because of a strained back muscle.
TRIVIA ANSWERS:
Austin Carr of Notre Dame scored 61 points against Ohio in 1970.
Carr averaged 52.7 points in three NCAA tournament games in 1970.