A year ago, the New York Giants were 40 to 1 long shots when the NFL post-season got down to the final eight teams still alive. As you know, the Giants shocked the unbeaten New England Patriots to capture Super Bowl 42.

Now, 12 months later, the surprising Arizona Cardinals, who were 40 to 1 shots to win Super Bowl 43 in February, May, and December of 2008, are one game and one victory away from pulling off one of the most stunning upsets in sports history. To accomplish that unexpected feat, Arizona must defeat
the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were listed as 25 to 1 long shots last February.

Photo by G. Newman Lowrance/NFL.com

For the first time in four years, a wild card team will not take possession of the Vince Lombardi trophy. The Steelers, Colts and Giants all had to win four road games in their difficult path to world championships in 2006, 2007, and 2008.

Number 2 AFC seed Pittsburgh had to defeat a tough Baltimore club for the third straight time this season to qualify for the trip to Tampa, and number 4 NFC seed Arizona had to avenge a 28-point shellacking at Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night to make it to the February 1 showdown.

How difficult is it  to beat a pro team three times in a season?  Since the 1970 merger, it has now been accomplished on 12 of 19 occasions.

Once again, the teams with the fewest turnovers turned out to be Sunday’s victors. Arizona and Pittsburgh each had one while Baltimore was guilty of four and Philadelphia three.

PLAYOFF TURNOVERS THIS SEASON

Just one of the 10 winning squads in these playoffs committed more turnovers than its losing opponent. (San Diego against Indianapolis)

It’s not just a one season pattern either.  Since 2003, NFL teams that won the turnover battle have a post-season record of 42 and 12.

To win conference championships, the Cardinals had to defeat three favored squads—–Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia. Arizona was a 10-point underdog against the Panthers on the road, and won, 33-13.  The Steelers, who have the best home record in the league since the 1970 merger, took care of San Diego and Baltimore in Pittsburgh.

RECORDS:

All of the following categories are for the 2008 regular season.

TEAM OFFENSE:

TEAM DEFENSE:

The Steelers have given up the fewest points, total yards and passing yards in the league. Pittsburgh’s defense is forcing rival quarterbacks to take shorter pass drops and get rid of the ball quicker. That means fewer deep passes. Arizona is using various coverages, zone dogs and stunts in the playoffs. However, the key may be the Cardinals have “calmed down on defense, stayed disciplined, not gotten over-aggressive, and played with infectious energy” in one scout’s analysis..

POINT DIFFERENTIAL:

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL:

Kurt Warner

The Cardinals  squandered an 18-point lead in the second half and  fell behind the Eagles, 25-24, but Kurt Warner drove Arizona  72 yards in 14 plays to  kill  nearly eight minutes late in the game.  Warner’s fourth touchdown pass of the day gave the Cinderella team in this season’s playoffs a 32-25 triumph. Warner is the number 3 rated passer in NFL regular season career games back of Steve Young and Peyton Manning, and fourth in playoff history trailing Bart Starr, Joe Montana, and Ken Anderson. The two-time league MVP while he was with the Rams is also the second most accurate passer all-time with a career completion percentage of 65.7 %.  Number one?  Chad Pennington of the Dolphins.

PASSING:

PLAYOFF RECORDS:

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger sparked the Steelers to their 23-14 verdict over the Ravens in the AFC title encounter. Like Warner, Ben has won a Super Bowl, and both signal-callers have glossy post-season records. Roethlisberger has learned to throw the ball away and hit his check down receivers when the long pass is not there.

RUSHING:

The Steelers’ Parker and James of the Cardinals have both been plagued by injuries this season which forced them to miss games, but they are healthy now, and each team is running the ball more effectively. Backup Tim Hightower made three game-saving plays for Arizona on Sunday. Another reason is the improved play of the Pittsburgh and Arizona offensive lines. The Cardinals may have been calling too many passes. There is an old cliche in the NFL…..”You gotta run the ball to win in January.”

RECEIVING:

Fitzgerald has added five post-season TDS to those NFL-best regular season numbers, three of them in the first half against Philadelphia. Larry caught nine passes against the Eagles for 152 yards. Ward is important to the Steelers offense, but an injury sidelined him early against Baltimore.

SUPER BOWL  ODDS

That means the odds makers are expecting Pittsburgh to down Arizona, 27 to 20.

Why seven points?  Because the Steelers are considered to have played a tougher schedule than the Cardinals.  Three games with the Ravens, two against  the Titans, and skirmishes with the Giants, Colts, Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers make a 12 and 4 record impressive.

Arizona surrendered 56 points to the Jets, 48 to the Eagles, and 47 to the Patriots on December 21. The Cardinals salvaged their season after being embarrassed in Foxboro. That gave them four losses in five games so the team went back to basics, practiced the next two weeks in pads, and hit a lot more in practice. Since the New England blowout, Arizona has won four straight, three in the playoffs, and scored 34, 30, 33 and 32 points, respectively, against Seattle, Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia.  But, who would have believed they would be going to the Super Bowl?

Maybe Kurt Warner…….. who is older than Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin.   Warner will be 38 in June. Tomlin, the youngest coach to take a team to the Super Bowl,  will soon be 37.